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Fiscal Consolidation During a Depression
Nitika Bagaria, Dawn Holland
and John Van Reenen
Special Paper No. 27
August 2012
Centre for Economic Performance Special Paper
Nitika Bagaria is an Occasional Research Assistant with the Productivity and
Innovation Programme at the Centre for Economic Performance, London
School of Economics and Political Science. Dawn Holland is a Senior Research
Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London .
John Van Reenen is the Director of CEP and Professor of Economics, London
School of Economics and Political Science.
Abstract
In 2009-10, the UKs budget deficit was about 11 per cent of GDP. A credible plan for fiscal
consolidation was introduced in the UK over the fiscal years 2011-12 to 2016-17. In this
paper, we assess the impact of the scale and timing of this fiscal consolidation programme on
output and unemployment in the UK. During a prolonged period of depression when
unemployment is well above most estimates of the NAIRU, the impact of fiscal tightening
may be different from that in normal times. We contrast three scenarios: the consolidation
plan implemented during a depression; the same plan, but with implementation delayed for
three years when the economy has recovered; and no consolidation at all. The modelling
confirms that doing nothing was not an option and would have led to unsustainable debt
ratios. Under both our immediate consolidation scenario and the delayed consolidation,
the necessary increases in taxes and reductions in spending reduce growth and increase
unemployment, as expected. But our estimates indicate that the impact would have been
substantially less, and less long-lasti
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