Future Population strongGrowthstrong and Policy Options - World Bank.pdfVIP

December 1997 FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH AND POLICY OPTIONS John Bongaarts _____________________________________________________________________________ John Bongaarts is Vice President, Policy Research Division, The Population Council, New York The modern expansion of human numbers started in the late 18th century with a long-term decline in the death rate in Europe and Northern America. This reduction in mortality was the consequence of a lower incidence of epidemics and famines and improvements in standards of living, levels of nutrition and basic public health measures. By the year 1900 the worlds population had risen to about 1.6 billion, and in 1950 the total stood at 2.5 billion. Since the middle of this century, a huge new spurt of growth has occurred in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, again the consequence of a rapid decline in mortality. As a result, more people have been added since 1950 than were alive in that year, and in 1995 the worlds population reached 5.7 billion. The acceleration in growth is well demonstrated by the shortening of time intervals to add successive billions to the worlds population. The first billion was reached around 1800, the second billion took 125 years, the third 35 years, the fourth 14 years, and the fifth (between 1974 and 1987) just 13 years. If current projections turn out to be accurate, the next few billions will be added at the same rapid pace. This paper reviews population projections for the world and its major regions until the year 2050. A brief summary of the latest United Nations projections and their underlying assumptions is presented first. This is followed by a discussion of the implications of the changes in the age composition that accompanies the demographic transition. The concluding section outlines policy options for slowing population growt