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1 1 Title: 2 Global food demand, productivity growth and the scarcity of land and water resources: 3 a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach 4 Authors: Hermann Lotze-Campen, Christoph Müller, Alberte Bondeau, Stefanie Rost, 5 Alexander Popp, Wolfgang Lucht 6 Affiliations (all authors): Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 7 PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany 8 Corresponding author: Hermann Lotze-Campen, Tel. +49-331-2882699, 9 Fax +49-331-288 2620, E-mail: lotze-campen@pik-potsdam.de 10 [Accepted for publication in Agricultural Economics, June 2008] 11 Abstract 12 In the coming decades, an increasing competition for global land and water resources can be 13 expected, due to rising demand for food and bio-energy production, biodiversity conservation 14 and changing production conditions due to climate change. The potential of technological 15 change in agriculture to adapt to these trends is subject to considerable uncertainty. In order to 16 simulate these combined effects in a spatially explicit way, we present a Model of 17 Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE). MAgPIE is a 18 mathematical programming model covering the most important agricultural crop and 19 livestock production types in 10 economic regions worldwide at a spatial resolution of three 20 by three degrees, i.e. approximately 300 by 300 km at the equator. It takes regional economic 21 conditions as well as spatially explicit data on potential crop yields, land and water constraints 22 into account and derives specific land-use patterns for each grid cell. Shadow price