Globalization and strongUnderdevelopmentstrong in the pre-Modern Third.pdf

The Luca d’Agliano Lecture Turin, Italy Globalization and Underdevelopment in the pre-Modern Third World Jeffrey G. Williamson Harvard University March 31, 2006 This Lecture is a revision and extension of the Figuerola Lecture delivered at Carlos III University, Madrid (October 6, 2005). It, in turn, draws on parts of my Ohlin Lectures given at the Stockholm School of Economics in October 2004 which will appear shortly as Globalization and the Poor Periphery Before the Modern Era (MIT Press 2006a). This work exploits collaborations with Luis Bértola, Chris Blattman, Michael Clemens, David Clingingsmith, John Coatsworth, Rafa Dobado, Aurora Gómez Galvarriato, Yael Hadass, Jason Hwang, Saif Shah Mohammed and Tarik Yousef, to whom I am very grateful. In addition, it has been improved by help with the data and the argument by Charlie Becker, Max Corden, Jean-Pierre Dormois, Bob Gregory, Tim Hatton, Elhanan Helpman, Pedro Lains, Peter Lindert, Leandro Prados, Şevket Pamuk, Rod Tyers and, especially, Steve Dowrick and Jason Hwang. In addition, I am happy to acknowledge useful comments from lecture attendees at Carlos III, the Stockholm School of Economics, the Canadian Economic History Network at Queen’s University, the University of Melbourne, the Australian National University and the Istanbul EHES meetings. Also, I acknowledge with gratitude the able research assistance of Cheng Gao, Pedro Glaser, Katherine Johnson, Taylor Owings, Yin Sun and Miray Topay. Abstract A large GDP per capita gap appeared between the industrial core and the poor periphery between 1810 and 1940, the periphery producing, increasingly, primary products. The terms of trade facing the periphery also underwent a secular boom then bust, peaking som