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WP/07/86
Guyana: Why Has Growth Stopped? An
Empirical Study on the Stagnation of
Economic Growth
Cornelia Staritz, Ruben Atoyan, and
Judith Gold
© 2007 International Monetary Fund WP/07/86
IMF Working Paper
WHD
Guyana: Why Has Growth Stopped? An Empirical Study
1
on the Stagnation of Economic Growth
Prepared by Cornelia Staritz, Judith Gold, Ruben Atoyan
Authorized for distribution by Robert Rennhack
April 2007
Abstract
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent
those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are
published to elicit comments and to further debate.
After a period of exceptionally strong economic performance, Guyana’s growth has
stagnated since 1998. The paper tries to identify the factors that can explain this dramatic
deterioration in economic performance. The paper first attempts to explain the decline of
growth with a growth accounting exercise which shows that there was a significant swing in
total factor productivity, and than uses a panel regression framework to analyze the growth
impact of changes in various factors. Finally, through a series of cross-country exercises, the
paper shows that the primary reaso
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