HIVAIDS and the Agricultural Sector Implications for Policy.pdfVIP

e J A D E electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA) FAO available online at /es/esa/eJADE Vol. 2, No. 2, 2005, pp. 158-181 HIV/AIDS and the Agricultural Sector: Implications for Policy in Eastern and Southern Africa* 1 2 2 T. S. Jayne, Marcela Villarreal , Prabhu Pingali and Günter Hemrich Dep artment of Agricultural Economics Michigan State University j ayne @ Abstract This p ap er draws up on development economics theory, demograp hic p roj ections, and emp irical evidence to consider the likely consequences of the HIV/AIDS p andemic f or the agricultural sector of the hardest-hit countries of Eastern and Southern Af rica. We identif y f our p rocesses that have been underemp hasized in p revious analysis: 1) the momentum of long-term p op ulation growth rates; 2) substantial underemp loyment in these countries ’ inf ormal sectors; 3) steady declines in land-to-p erson ratios in the smallholder f arming sectors; and 4) eff ects of f ood and inp ut marketing ref orms on shif ts in cropp ing p atterns. The p ap er concludes that the conventional wisdom encouraging p rioritisation of labour-saving technology or crop s has been over-generalised, although labour-saving agricultural technologies may be app rop riate f or certain typ es of households and regions. The most eff ective means f or ag