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Household Sector Financial strongBalancestrong, Financing Gap, Financial.pdf

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Working Paper No. 632 The Household Sector Financial Balance, Financing Gap, Financial Markets, and Economic Cycles in the US Economy: A Structural VAR Analysis by Paolo Casadio Intesa Sanpaolo Bank Antonio Paradiso ISAE and University of Rome La Sapienza* November 2010 * Contacts: paolo.casadio@yahoo.it; e-mail: anto_paradiso@; a.paradiso@isae.it. The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad. Levy Economics Institute P.O. Box 5000 Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000 Copyright © Levy Economics Institute 2010 All rights reserved ABSTRACT This paper investigates private net saving in the US economy—divided into its principal components, households and (nonfinancial) corporate financial balances—and its impact on the GDP cycle from the 1980s to the present. Furthermore, we investigate whether the financial markets (stock prices, BAA spread, and long-term interest rates) have a role in explaining the cyclical pattern of the two private financial balances. We analyze all these aspect