Implications of Population Aging for strongEconomicstrong Growth.pdf

PROGRAM ON THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY OF AGING Working Paper Series Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Günther Fink January 201 1 PGDA Working Paper No. 64 /pgda/working.htm The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Harvard Initiative for Global Health. The Program on the Global Demography of Aging receives funding from the National Institute on Aging, Grant No. 1 P30 AG024409-06. Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Günther Fink Harvard School of Public Health January 2011 Support for this work was provided by the Program on the Global Demography of Aging at Harvard University, funded by Award Number P30AG024409 from the National Institute on Aging. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute on Aging or the National Institutes of Health. The authors thank Marija Ozolins and Larry Rosenberg for their assistance in the preparation of this paper. Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Günther Fink Abstract Between 2005 and 2050, the share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world. Insofar as this shift will tend to lower both labor force participation and savings rates, it raises bona fide concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. These concerns apply to both developed and developing countri