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Indicators of Natural Resource Scarcity :
Review, Synthesis, and Application to U.S. Agriculture
Cutler J. Cleveland1
and
David I. Stern2
Revised Version June 1997
1 Department of Geography and Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Boston University
675 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, USA, phone : +1-617-353-3083, fax: +1-617-
353-5986, E-Mail : cutler@.
2 Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT
0200, AUSTRALIA, phone : +61-6-249-0664, fax: +61-6-249-0757, E-mail :
dstern@.au
1. Introduction
An increase in natural resource scarcity is defined as a reduction in economic well-being
due to a decline in the quality, availability, or productivity of natural resources. Simple in concept,
the measurement of natural resource scarcity is the subject of significant debate about which of the
alternative indicators of scarcity, such as unit costs, prices, rents, elasticities of substitution, and
energy costs is superior (e.g. Brown and Field, 1979; Fisher, 1979; Hall and Hall, 1984; Cairns,
1990; Cleveland and Stern, 1993). Most neoclassical economists argue that, in theory, price is the
ideal measure of scarcity (e.g. Fisher, 1979) though some argue in favor of rents (Brown and
Field, 1979; Farzin, 1995). Barnett and Morse (1963) developed the unit cost indicator from their
reading of Ricardo as an alternative to the neoclassical indicators. Some ecological economists
favor a biophysical model of scarcity and derive energy-based indicators (e.g. Cleveland et al.,
1984; Hall et al., 1986; Cleveland, 1991a, 1992; Ruth, 1995).
The scarcity of agricultural products has received considerable attention due to the obvious
importance of food production and the very vocal ar
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