Innovation and complex governance at times of strongscarcitystrong of.pdf

Innovation and complex governance at times of scarcity of resources – a lesson from history 1 1 2 David Peck , Conny Bakker , André Diederen 1 Delft University of Technology, Landbergstraat 15, 2628CE Delft, The Netherlands, d.p.peck@tudelft.nl c.a.bakker@tudelft.nl 2TNO Defence, Security and Safety P.O. Box 45, 2280 AA Rijswijk, The Netherlands andre.diederen@tno.nl Abstract Historians understand the important role that access to critical raw materials has played in the development of civilizations, however access to materials has regularly led to distrust and conflict. Near future material scarcity scenarios appear to be severe and could include a mix of price volatility, supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Materials scarcity would affect the supply side of a range of materials upon which high-tech and renewable energy industries rely. Historically, materials restrictions were placed by societies, onto themselves and were generally short term or limited in nature. The current materials scarcity challenge, whilst being self imposed, will be long term and global in nature. One fundamental challenge will be to explore historical case studies that give us a reference point to explore potential responses. There are numerous case studies over the 20th century – mainly driven by conflicts and sanctions. This paper examines one case in particular – that of Britain during World War Two. This case has a number of facets that make it very useful for analysis. The first of these is the length of time – counted in years. Secondly - the materials involved and in particular the metals and the lack of easily available substitutes. Thirdly - the role of secondary sourcing (recyclin