Integrated assessment of global water strongscarcitystrong over the 21st.pdfVIP

Integrated assessment of global water strongscarcitystrong over the 21st.pdf

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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2859–2883, 2014 /18/2859/2014/ doi:10.5194/hess-18-2859-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 M. I. Hejazi , J. Edmonds , L. Clarke , P. Kyle , E. Davies , V. Chaturvedi , M. Wise , P. Patel , J. Eom , and K. Calvin1 1Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, Maryland, USA 2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Alberta, Canada Correspondence to: M. I. Hejazi (mohamad.hejazi@) Received: 31 January 2013 – Published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 13 March 2013 Revised: 11 June 2014 – Accepted: 16 June 2014 – Published: 6 August 2014 Abstract. Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of the water scarcity index (WSI) 1.0). When comparing the climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while main- both water availability and water demand within the Global taining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community- scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095, particu- and water. To quantify changes in future water availabil- larly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under ity, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase, namely

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