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Gregory E. McAvoy Department of Political Science University of North Carolina at Greensboro PO Box 26170 Greensboro, NC 27402 email: gemcavoy@ September 3, 2012 In order to better understand information processing at the aggregate level, I a) describe a model of information processing of aggregate opinion that is consistent with the individual-level models, b) show how this information processing model works in the context of the public’s evaluation of the economy and c) compare aggregate opinion about the economy to a benchmark of strict “rational” decision-makers represented by the opinions of professional forecasters compiled in the Survey of Professional Fore- casters. Prepared for delivery at the 2012 European Public Opinion and Parties Conference, University of Oxford, September 7-9, 2012. An enduring question in the study of public opinion is the extent to which collective opinion measures up to standards of rationality. Walter Lippmann’s (1922) early trea- tise on public opinion paints a grim portrait of the electorate, one in which citizens possess little information about the political system and only provide weak signals about the direction that the country should take. Starting with (1960), political scientists have documented that certain segments of the American pub- lic lack the knowledge or ideological framework for effective political decision-making. Such studies have long been a source of discouragement for those concerned about a healthy, democratic polity. But, when researchers have looked at the public as whole, the outlook has been more optimistic. In , Pa