JOBLESS strongRECOVERYstrong IS NO strongRECOVERYstrong PROSPECTS FOR THE US strongECONOMYstrong.pdfVIP
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Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
Levy Economics Strategic Analysis
Institute
of Bard College
March 2011
JOBLESS RECOVERY IS NO
RECOVERY: PROSPECTS FOR
THE US ECONOMY
. , , and
Intr ducti n
The US economy grew reasonably fast during the last quarter of 20 10, and the general expecta-
tion seems to be that satisfactory growth will continue in 20 11– 12. This report argues that the
expansion may indeed continue through 20 12, and perhaps for another quarter or so in 20 13. But
with large deficits in the government and foreign sectors, satisfactory growth in the medium term
cannot be achieved without a major, sustained increase in net export demand. This, of course,
cannot happen automatically, and it certainly will not happen without either a cut in the domes-
tic absorption of goods and services in the United States or a revaluation of the currencies of the
major US trading partners. Both might impart a deflationary impulse to the rest of the world,
while the latter might also cause a resumption of inflationary pressures.
Following our usual custom, we make no short-term forecast. nstead,
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