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COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC STUDIES, XLIII, NO. 3 (FALL 2001), XXX
Macro-Experimental Economics in the Kyrgyz Republic:
Social Security Sustainability and Pension Reform
Charles M. Becker
Department of Economics,
University of Colorado at Denver
Sergey Paltsev
Department of Economics,
University of Colorado at Boulder
Despite a decade of transition, pension systems in formerly socialist
countries still desperately need viable reform. This paper assesses reform
packages advocated by different international agencies, and considers their
sensitivity to varying economic and demographic assumptions. Failure to
account for demographic-economic interactions strongly biases forecasts.
Few viable reform options exist, due to the near absence of capital markets,
the collapse of formal sector employment, and huge differences between ur-
ban and rural sectors. The divergent results from projections made under
different assumptions imply that policymakers should examine the realism of
policy suggestions (and associated actuarial forecasts) very carefully.
______________________
Many people have offered valuable comments on this paper and its predecessors.
Paulette Castel and Anita Schwarz at the World Bank were extremely generous with
data, model, and advice. Philip Goldman, David Weig, and two anonymous referees
provided valuable comments on earlier drafts of this paper, and Umit Ukaeva offered
excellent statistical support. This paper also benefited from comments during seminars
at the Kyrgyz Social Fund, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and University of
Colorado at Denver. All errors and misinterpretations, however, remain our own.
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