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THE WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW, VOL. 14, NO. 2: 251–85
Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing
Countries: Some Stylized Facts
Pierre-Richard Agénor, C. John McDermott, and Eswar S. Prasad
This article documents the main stylized features of macroeconomic fluctuations for 12
developing countries. It presents cross-correlations between domestic industrial output
and a large group of macroeconomic variables, including fiscal variables, wages, infla-
tion, money, credit, trade, and exchange rates. Also analyzed are the effects of economic
conditions in industrial countries on output fluctuations in the sample developing coun-
tries. The results point to many similarities between macroeconomic fluctuations in de-
veloping and industrial countries (procyclical real wages, countercyclical variation in
government expenditures) and some important differences (countercyclical variation in
the velocity of monetary aggregates). Their robustness is examined using different
detrending procedures.
Understanding and distinguishing among the factors that affect the short- and
long-run behavior of macroeconomic time series have been among the main ar-
eas of recent research in quantitative macroeconomic analysis. Using a variety of
econometric techniques, a substantial body of literature has documented a wide
range of empirical regularities in macroeconomic fluctuations and business cycles
across countries. These stylized facts have often been used as an empirical basis
for formulating theoretical models of the business cycle and as a way to discrimi-
nate among alternative classes of models.
Most of the new research in this area has focused on industrial countries,
paying less attention to developing countries.1 At least two factors may account
for this. First, limitations on the quality and frequency of dat
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