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Malthus in Rwanda? Scarcity, Survival and Causes of the Genocide David Yanagizawa (david.yanagizawa@ne.su.se) Department of Economics, Gˆteborg University August 2006 Abstract This paper does two things. First, it develops a game theoretical model over population groups that optimize their survival under resource scarce conditions. The model includes two rather obvious, but in the theoretical literature neglected, strategies - survival by migration and, once a con- áict is ignited, survival by taking refuge. Results include determinants of migration and refugee áows, the threshold for violent conáict and its intensity. Second, it derives the necessary and su¢ cient conditions for a genocide and applies the model in order to analyze the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. It suggests that the extremist regime that seized power on April 6th 1994, while being on a genocide agenda exploited the under- lying resource scarce conditions by way of forcefully destroying property rights and massively support appropriative actions, thereby facilitating the killings and persecutions of Tutsis on the scale of a genocide. Finally, key to understanding the scope of the genocide in 1994, is suggested to be that the extremist regime was not only the active support of appro- priative actions, but the simultaneous and deliberate destroying of the refugee infrastructure. The di§erence in the level of refugee infrastuc- ture can possibly explain why earlier violent episodes had lower conáict intensity although sharing some similar characteristics. Keywords: Genocide, Conáict, Migration, Resource Scarcity, Rwanda,
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