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Managing Mongolia’s resource boom
Asel Isakova, Alexander Plekhanov and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Summary
With two very large mining projects expected to reach full production this decade, Mongolia is
entering a commodity boom. History teaches us that commodity revenues offer unique
opportunities for development but can also depress long-term economic prospects by
increasing macroeconomic volatility, reducing incentives to invest in physical and human
capital and undermining economic and political institutions. This paper surveys what Mongolia
can do, building on reform steps it has already taken, to avoid a “resource trap”. It argues that
(i) cash transfers to the general population should be linked directly to the performance of the
underlying mining assets to create a domestic constituency for good governance in the mining
sector; (ii) social spending should be de-linked from resource revenues, better targeted and
fully incorporated into the budget; (iii) macroeconomic volatility could be reduced by
operationalising the fiscal stabilisation fund, issuing GDP-indexed debt instruments, and
through financial sector reforms; and (iv) major infrastructure and industrial development
projects should seek private sector co-investments to ensure that public money is well spent.
Keywords: natural resources, economic boom, institutions, financial development
JEL Classification Number: Q32, Q33, O10, O16
Contact details: Alexander Plekhanov, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,
One Exchange Square, London, EC2A 2JN, UK. Email: plekhana@
Asel Isakova is a senior economic analyst, Alexander Plekhanov is a principal economist and
Jeromin Zettelmeyer is Director for Research, all at the European Bank for Reconstruction
and Development.
The authors are grateful to Erik Berglöf and Ralph de Haas for valuable comments and
suggestions.
The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the authors
and do
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