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Report No. 14 May 26, 1998 Measuring Change in Mental Models of Dynamic Systems: An Exploratory Study James K. Doyle1 2 Michael J. Radzicki 3 W. Scott Trees Submitted to System Dynamics Review, under review. 1 Department of Social Science and Policy Studies, 100 Institute Rd., Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA 01609. Email: doyle@. 2 Department of Social Science and Policy Studies, 100 Institute Rd., Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA 01609. Email: mjradz@. 3 Department of Economics, Siena College, 515 Loudon Rd., Loudonville, New York 12211. E-mail: trees@. ABSTRAC T Measuring change in the mental models of the participants in systems thinking and system dynamics interventions is unavoidable if the relative effectiveness of different interventions in promoting learning is to be assessed. However, existing methods for organizing, representing, eliciting, and mapping mental models are designed primarily to facilitate change in mental models, rather than to measure change, and so new methodologies for measuring change in mental models are needed. This paper defines the necessary features of any methodology that aims to rigorously measure change in mental models of dynamic systems and describes the development and implementation of one specific new methodology designed to fulfill these criteria. An exploratory application of the method to a systems thinking intervention designed to change mental models of the causes of the economic long wave, or Kondratiev cycle, is also described. Results indicate that the intervention produced