并购定价.ppt

Valuation for ”dummies”- A beginners’ guide to valuation in an MA situation Peter Bonnén – CP John Hansen – CP J?rgen Rugholm – CP Kasper Vaala – CP CONTENTS CONTENTS OUR BELIEFS ABOUT VALUATION THE VALUE OF A COMPANY CONSISTS OF TWO PARTS THE CALCULATION OF AGGREGATE VALUE IS BASED ON A NUMBER OF KEY PARAMETERS EBIT IS A FUNDAMENTAL PARAMETER WHEN CALCULATING THE VALUE OF A COMPANY VALUATION METHODOLOGIES OVERALL VALUATION IS BASED ON MULTIPLE VALUATION METHODOLOGIES AND SCENARIOS KEY HISTORICAL PARAMETERS CAN BE FOUND IN ANNUAL REPORTS OTHER PARAMETERS NEEDED IN A VALUATION PROCESS CAN BE FOUND USING VARIOUS SOURCES CONTENTS OUR BELIEFS AND KEY LEARNINGS ABOUT DCF OVERVIEW OF THE DCF CALCULATION THE DCF PROCES CONSISTS OF 4 STEPS BUILDING THE BASICS FOR A BULLET PROOF FORECAST EXAMPLE: FORECASTING REVENUES FOR A RETAILER SAMPLE INCOME STATEMENT FORECAST SAMPLE FREE CASH FLOW FORECAST THE TECHNICAL PARAMETERS IN THE DCF ANALYSIS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON VALUE WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) CALCULATION SAMPLE CALCULATION OF WACC A DCF VALUE RANGE IS CALCULATED FROM THE FORECASTED FREE CASH FLOWS DCF CALCULATION SAMPLE SAMPLE DCF SPREADSHEET OUTPUT CONTENTS USING MULTIPLES VALUATION IS AN IMPORTANT PART OF OVERALL VALUATION PEER GROUP AND COMPARABLE BENCHMARKS SHOULD REFLECT THE MARKET’S VALUATION EXAMPLE: COMPARABLE COMPANIES IN THE RETAIL SECTOR IN EUROPE MULTIPLE INTERVALS FOR TARGET ARE SELECTED BASED ON THE PEER GROUPS’ MULTIPLES EXAMPLE OF SELECTED MULTIPLE INTERVALS SAMPLE PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS ESTIMATE OF VALUE IS BASED ON THE SELECTED MUTIPLES INTERVAL AND THE TARGET’S OPERATING STATISTICS SAMPLE MULTIPLES VALUATION CALCULATION OF BETA VALUES* SAMPLE UNLEVERED BETA CALCULATION FOR COMPARABLE COMPANIES EXAMPLE OF UNLEVERED AND RELEVERED BETA CALCULATION CALCULATION OF MARKET VALUE TO BOOK VALUE (FOR USE WHEN TARGET IS UNLISTED) WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) CALCULATION – UNLISTED COMPANY SAMPLE CALCULATION OF WACC – UNLISTED COMPAN