动荡的全球金融形势下的中国经济专题.docVIP

【动荡的全球金融形势下的中国经济专题】 中国利率政策操作范式的实证研判与理论诠评 内容提要：本文对中国利率政策操作实践及其特征进行了回顾和总结，指出中国利率政策操作具有典型的“相机抉择”特征，这种政策在实践中存在低效性。在此基础上，文章借助1978年-2007年中国宏观经济数据，运用向量自回归（VAR）模型对上述现象进行了实证检验和动态模拟。实证研究的结论有：中国利率政策调控是以盯住通货膨胀率为主的“逆经济周期而动”的操作方式；脉冲响应函数分析结果表明利率调整对于通货膨胀率冲击的响应总体表现为上升趋势，而对于实际产出缺口则为下降趋势，通货膨胀率的冲击对于利率变动的影响较之于实际产出缺口其调整力度更大，滞后周期更短；方差分解的结果表明在短期中通货膨胀率变动对利率响应的贡献率较大，而在长期中产出缺口的变动对利率响应的贡献有增长态势；对央行利率政策操作规则的模拟结果显示中国“相机抉择”的利率政策操作不能有效地起到稳定经济波动的作用。文章最后，运用利率政策的时效性和时滞效应原理诠释了中国利率政策操作低效性的深层原因。 关键词：利率政策；规则；相机抉择；VAR模型；时滞效应 Abstract: In this paper, author first review and sum up characteristics of the practice of the operation of Chinas interest rate policy and point out that Chinas interest rate policy operation has a typical random Choice feature,which is in practice ineffective. On this basis, the article uses vector autoregressive (VAR) model to test and simulate the above-mentioned phenomena empirically. The conclusions of empirical studies are belows: Chinas interest rate policy is pegged to the inflation rate; impulse response function analysis show that the inflation rate for interest rate adjustments in response to shocks to increase the overall performance of trend, while the actual output gap, compared with a downward trend, the impact of the rate of inflation for the impact of changes in interest rates than the actual output gap in the adjustment of larger, shorter lag.Variance decomposition results show that in a short period the contribution of the rate of inflation on interest rates is larger, and the contribution of output gap in the long-term changes on interest rates will grow.Simulated results of the operation of central bank interest rate policy rules show that Chinas random-choice operation of the interest rate policy can not effectively stabilize economic fluctuations. Finally,article uses timeliness and time-lag effect of interest rate policy to explain causes of inefficiency of Chinas interest rate policy. Key words: Interest rate policy; Rules; Random choice;VAR model; time-lag