毕业论文-影响我国居民消费相关因素的OLS回归分析研究【终稿】.doc

影响我国居民消费相关因素的OLS回归分析研究 摘 要 在中国经济发展进程中，消费是伴随其发展的一个重要内容，伴随着经济增长的加快，消费形式的变化也越来越快。自进入21世纪以来，内需成为经济学领域一个比较热点的名词。扩大内需，增加居民消费成为了拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”之一。 居民的消费与一个国家的经济发展息息相关，对经济的增长影响惯性最大，是拉 动经济增长最重要、最稳定的因素。我国经济正逐渐由投资拉动型增长向消费拉动型增长转变，如何促进居民消费以扩大内需已成为人们关注的重点和热点。消费作为我国经济增长的三驾马车之一，起着不可替代的作用，只有把经济增长转变为依靠内需的增加上来，才能真正实现惠国惠民国策。 本文通过对我国居民消费水平的统计数据资料分析，建立居民消费的计量经济学模型。然后，使用EVIEWS 6.0对模型的参数进行估计，运用普通最小二乘法（Ordinary Least Squares,OLS）对数据进行单因素、多因素的回归分析，并引入递归的逐步回归分析模型，研究模型中各个变量对居民消费水平的影响程度，使我们对相关影响因素从定性认识转换到定量认识，并在此基础上提出提高居民消费水平的对策。 关键字：居民消费水平，扩大内需，普通最小二乘法 ABSTRACT In Chinas economic development process, the consumer is accompanied by the development of an important content, along with the accelerating pace of economic growth, consumption patterns of change is faster and faster. Since entering in the 21st century, domestic demand becomes a more popular term in the field of economics. Expanding domestic demand[1] to increase the residents?consumption has become one of three major power driving economic growth. The residents consumption is the most important and stable factor stimulating economic growth, which is closely related to a countrys economic development. Chinas economy is gradually shifting from investment-led growth to consumption-led growth transformation.How to promote consumption in order to expand domestic demand has become a focus of attention and hot for our country.Consumption as Chinas economic growth is one of the troika, plays an irreplaceable role, only economic growth into relying on domestic demand increases up to truly achieve benefit citizen and country national policy. Firstly,this paper establishes a econometric model of the residents consumption through analyzing statistics of our residents?consumption level. Then, in order to let us recognize the relevant factors from qualitative understanding to quantitative understanding[2], I study the degree of the influence of each variable on the residents?consumption in the model by using EVIE