基于博弈论的磷石膏充填水质物元评价.pdfVIP

科技导报2015，33（15） 基于博弈论的磷石膏充填水质物元评价基于博弈论的磷石膏充填水质物元评价 李夕兵，范昀，兰明，尚雪义 中南大学资源与安全工程学院，长沙410083 摘要摘要 为研究磷石膏充填对地下水环境的影响，选取水中总汞、总砷、六价铬、铁、锰、铜、锌、总磷、氟化物的含量共9个影响因子 作评价指标，采用物元分析理论进行评价；针对传统物元评价中单一赋权方法确定评价指标权重的不足，引入博弈论思想，对评 价指标组合赋权，建立基于博弈论的磷石膏充填水质组合赋权-物元评价模型，以《地下水质量标准》为依据对不同采样点涌水水 质综合评价。结果表明：1）基于博弈论的物元分析法体现了不同评价因子对水质的影响，结果更加全面、系统、真实；2）未充填 区域水质可达到I级水质标准，充填区域较差，循环用水最差，为V类水质标准；3）评价结果为磷石膏充填水环境保护方案的提 出及矿山安全、绿色开采的实现提供了科学依据。 关键词关键词 磷石膏充填；地下水；组合赋权；物元分析法 中图分类号中图分类号 X824 文献标志码文献标志码 A doidoi 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2015.15.002 Evaluationofphosphogypsumfillingwaterqualityusinggametheory andmatter-elementanalysistheory LIXibing,FANYun,LANMing,SHANGXueyi SchoolofResourcesandSafetyEngineering,CentralSouthUniversity,Changsha 410083,China AbstractAbstract Tostudytheinfluenceofphosphogysumfillingonthegroundwaterenvironment,aphosphogysumfillingwaterquality combinationweighting-matter-elementevaluationmodelisestablishedbasedongametheoryandmatter-elementanalysistheory. 9 influencefactorsarechosenasevaluationindexeswhichincludemercury,totalarsenic,sexivalentchromium,iron,manganese,copper, zinc,totalphosphorousandfluoride.Gametheoryisincludedinthemodelwherecombinationweightingisadoptedtoavoidthedefect oftraditionalmatter-elementevaluationmethodsthatuseasingleweight.Acomprehensiveevaluationontheseepingwaterquality fromdifferentsamplingpointsisconductedbasedonQualityStandardforGroundWater.Theresultsareasfollows.Firstly,the matter-elementanalysismethodbasedonthegametheoryincludescombinedinfluencesfromdifferentevaluationfactorsonthewater quality,theevaluationresultbeingmorecomprehensive,systematicandfactual.Secondly,waterqualityintheunfilledregionreaches waterqualitylevel 1,alowerwaterqualityisfoundinthefilledregion,andthecirculatingwaterhasthelowestwaterqualityinthis study, i.e., water quality level 5. Finally, a phosphogysum filling water environment protection scheme i