层次分析方法应用案例.doc

摘 要 应用层次分析法，通过建立递阶层次结构和判断矩阵，并结合定性评价和定量评价，对投资股票项目中的股票进行评价和排序，进而做出合理的选择决策。本文首先论述了股票的基本特征：1、不可偿还性参与性收益性流通性价格波动性和风险性MACD（指数平滑异同移动平均线）RSI（相对强弱指标）KDJ（随机指标）AHP(the Analytical Hierarchy Process) is used to evaluate and rank of stocks in investment. After building up the hierarchy structure and the judgment matrix, a reasonable selecting decision is made by combinating the qualitative and quantitative analysis. This article first elaborated the stock essential feature: 1st, may not the repayment, 2nd, participations, 3rd, rentabilities, 4th, conductivities, 5th, price undulatory property and the risk. And rested on the essential feature and the realistic market relates, has established the influence stock primary factor which the article needed to analyze, namely macroscopic factor, subjective factor, objective factor and technical factor. Through to each primary factors understanding and the analysis, established has affected each primary factor the realistic factor, namely influence macroscopic factor state economy, bulk lots trend, economic policy and thunderbolt; Affects the subjective factor the deadline by chance, the insider information and the risk by chance; Affects objective factor the stock price, the company condition and the stock nature; Influence technology factor MACD (index smooth similarities and differences running mean line), RSI (relative strong and the weak target) and KDJ (stochastic target). According to analytic hierarchy processs basic philosophy establishment target stratum, the criterion level with the sub-criterion level, establishes the judgment matrix, the establishment qualitative appraisal and the quantitative evaluation, thus makes the quota to the stock the quality synthetic evaluation. At last, a practical case study is given to show that AHP is a useful and effective method in stock selection. Key words: AHP; stock-selection; decision making 目 录 前言……………………………………………………………………………………… 1 第一章 选股主要因素分析………………………………………………………………3 1.1 宏观因素……………………