基于AHP和TOPSIS区域水能资源可持续开发评价地研究.doc

 摘 要 西南地区水能资源丰富，战略地位重要，而水电工程建设不可避免会对区域环境 产生一定程度影响。如何从宏观决策层面减少这种不利影响，定量评价水能资源合理 发开，实现区域可持续性发展的研究具有现实的意义。本文以雅砻江中游某电站所处 区域为例进行分析，基于可持续发展的特性，即发展态势、协调性和公平性进行评价； 探索性研究并建立水能开发对应的区域可持续发展指标体系；基于 AHP 和 TOPSIS 方法，用统一的尺度度量发展指标，合理的测度和评价水能资源的可持续利用性。并 结合雅砻江中游某控制性水库工程进行了具体应用。分析结论表明该体系针对水能资 源可持续性开发，可以进行定量分析并为建设决策及环境保护提供依据。主要成果包 括： （1）采用系统分析方法，将包括水能资源开发利用的区域发展看成一个由水能 资源开发、环境和区域社会经济子系统组成的复合系统。剖析了系统及各子系统的结 构、功能及特征，为建立水能资源开发对应的区域可持续发展指标体系提供基础。 （2）依据可持续发展理论与水资源可持续开发特点，建立了包括存、效用、自 由度、安全、适应性，共存等六个方面的指标体系，反映系统中精神、社会、生活和 生态方面的需要。 （3）提出了 AHP 和 TOPSIS 方法相结合的进行区域水资源开发可持续评价的方 法。AHP 方法主要用于计算不同指标的权重。TOPSIS 方法用于将不同的指标进行统 一尺度，用综合的指标来分析 评价水能资源的可持续利用性。 （4）结合雅砻江中游某控制性水库工程，进行区域水能可持续开发体系研究及 评价。研究表明：该区域水电资源开发的可持续性程度较高，但由于进行水电开发是 对经济效益有所偏重，因而系统整体发展较不均衡。 关键词：水能资源；可持续开发；评价；AHP；TOPSIS Abstract Southwest China is rich in water resources, and many hydropower projects are during construction still now. The construction of the hydropower projects would have some adverse effects on the regional environment inevitably. It has practical significance to find some measures to reduce such adverse effects from the macroeconomic policy-making level, to evaluate quantitatively the reasonability of the development of hydropower resources, and to achieve regional sustainable development. The middle reaches of Yalong River, which was a typical region of hydropower development, was chosen as research object. A set of indicators were established for evaluating the sustainable development ability of the region of hydropower development, based on the characteristics of sustainable development, i.e. the development trend, coordination and fairness. The hydropower development, environmental protection and regional socio-economic development were all taken into consideration in the proposed evaluation indicator system. Based on the AHP and TOPSIS method, the sustainable use of hydropower resources was reasonably quantified and evaluated by using the indicators in a uniform scale. The proposed indicator system and method was appli