ATalkonEconometrics.ppt

拿起计量经济的武器Econometrics: Your Weapon 李春涛 School of Economics and Finance, the University of Hong Kong Email: chtl@econ.hku.hk 计量经济学家林少宫 1944年毕业于中央大学经济系 1947年到美国，师从Herwicz和Modigliarni 伊利诺伊大学获得经济学博士学位 任教于俄亥俄州立大学 1954年，他谢绝了当时统计学界、经济学界、数学界公认的大师霍特林(Hotelling)教授的工作邀请，放弃了国外优越的生活条件，毅然返回祖国，向教育部报到 计量经济学家林少宫 现代经济学一直被视为是“庸俗”的、为资本主义制度进行诡辩的资产阶级学科，经济学出身的林老师回国后不能教现代经济学，也就只好被分配到华中工学院数学教研室从事数理统计的教学和研究工作 其间钱学森教授曾力邀林老师去北京工作，被爱才如命的教育家朱九思老校长强留下来 田国强、艾春荣、时寿勇、宋敏、谭国富、徐殿庆、方振民、杨小凯、文梅、刘安平、黄晓东等 School of Information What is information？ Insider information? 李国宝的朋友梁启雄的女儿梁家安和丈夫王勤兢在4月13日至30日期间购买41.5万股道琼斯公司股份，价值1500万美元。新闻集团收购意图公开后，道琼斯股票价格急升58%，王勤兢夫妇所掌 握的股票价值升至2300万美元，利润高达818万美元。 Rumors？ Fortune or sin? April 19, 2007 Stock market reaction before macro-data release The (trilogy) film Matrix Information is data collection and its processing Data mining Attributes of Information Mathematical modeling Data collection Computer science Data mining (Econometrics Methods) What the school has missed? More focus on Econometrics? A econometrics department? Your Merits Solid background in Mathematics Trainings in Statistics and Probability theory Intensive Skills in Computer Programming Some basic knowledge of Economics What the job market is recruiting？ Quantitative analysis for financial industry Empirical researchers for social science Opportunities for you Financial Institutions Research Assistant Graduate Program, domestic and abroad Osama bin Laden Recommendations Statistics Econometrics Economics Theory Software Data sources Outline What is Econometrics? Where to use it? Classical Econometrics Cases Software Introduction Databases within arm’s length Suggestions for your thesis The Emerging of Econometrics Ideal Theoretical Models: too ideal Based on ideal hypothesis Too simple compared with real world Multi-factor in Causality Ownership may affect firm performance Firm size, legal environment etc may also have effects Models cannot be inclusive enough Two-Direction Causality Complexi