从国际经济学角度看人民币汇率稳定.docx

摘 要2015年8月11口，新一轮汇率制度改革启动之后人民币汇率出现了较大幅度贬值。本文着重分析了影响人民币汇率稳定的各项因素，以这些因素为线索，通过相应指标数据对其进行直观描述来反映现状，由此构造出汇率的多元回归模型，并对搜集的数据做出相关的实证分析。通过实证分析和检验得到相关结论一一人民币汇率的主要影响因素为外汇储备的数量；而GDP对人民币汇率的影响并不显著。本文以该结论为基础，对我国的汇率改革提出了相应的措施建议，其措施的建议主要从人民币汇率制度、外汇储备制度、利率的改革等方面共同解决人民币汇率问题。希望藉此防止汇率在短期内出现大幅度的波动，影响我国经济的健康发展。关键词:人民币汇率；贬值；影响因素；Abstract11 August 2015, After a new exchange rate system reform started, the RMB exchange rate appeared more substantial depreciation. This artical emphatically analyzes the factors that influence the stability of the RMB exchange rate. With these factors as a clue, the corresponding index data by its visual description reflectes the status quo, therefore we can construct a multiple regression model of exchange rates, and make the relevant Empirical analysis After our?empirical analysis and testing,?we can get?the following?main?conclusions: The main influencing factor of the RMB exchange rate is the number of foreign exchange reserves; the impact on GDP of RMB exchange rate is not significant. At?the?end?of?the article, the proposed measures and advices for exchange rate reform are based on earlier?conclusion.Its measures mainly from RMB exchange rate system, the system of foreign exchange reserves, interest rate reform common settle the problems about the RMB exchange rate. Hoping to prevent significant fluctuations in the short term and affecting the healthy development of Chinas economy.Keywords: exchange rate; devaluation; influencing factors;目录摘要……………………………………………………………………………………………I目录……………………………………………………………………………………………II1．绪论 ………………………………………………………………………………………11．1研究背景与意义…………………………………………………………………………11．2研究思路与方法…………………………………………………………………………21．3研究的创新点与难点……………………………………………………………………31．3．1研究的创新点 ………………………………………………………………………1．3．2研究的难点 …………………………………………………………………………2．文献综述 …………………………………………………………………………………2．1国外研究动态……………………………………………………………………………2．2国内研究动态……………………………………………………………………………2. 3本章小结…………………………………………………………………………………3. 人民币汇率及其相关影响因素的现状分析 ……………………………………………3.1国际收支方面 ………………………………