微观经济学不确定性经济学精读.pptx

不确定性经济学第11章风险和不确定性的经济学11.13投机Speculation(投机)istheactivitywhichinvolvesmakingprofitsfromthefluctuations(波动)inprices.Speculatorsarenotinterestedinusingtheproduct.Rather,theywanttobuylowandsellhigh.4套利和地区价格形式ChicagoThepriceofwheat=$2.00KansasCityThepriceofwheat=$2.50WheatThecostsofinsuranceandtransportationare10centsperbushel.Anarbitrager(套利者)canmakeaprofitof40centsperbushel.Asaresultofarbitrage(套利),thepricedifferencebetweenmarketswillgenerallybelessthanthecostofmovingthegoodfromonemarkettotheother.5PQPQChicagoThepriceofwheat=$2.00KansasCityThepriceofwheat=$2.50Wheat6投机与不同时间的价格行为PriceofcornFallSpringFallSpringFallSpringharvestharvestharvest7投机带来利润的方式(1)purchasingsomeoftheautumncropwhileitischeap,(2)puttingitintostorage,and(3)sellingitlaterwhenthepricehasrisen.Asaresultofthespeculativeactivities,theautumnpriceincreases,thespringsupplyofcornincreases,andthespringpricedeclines8PriceofcornFallSpringFallSpringFallSpringharvestharvestharvest投机者抹平商品不同时间的价格Thepricepatterntentstoevenoutconsumptionoverseasons.投机活动对市场经济的意义Speculationrevealstheinvisible-handprincipleatwork.Byeveningoutsuppliesandprices,speculationactuallyincreaseseconomicefficiency.Bymovinggoodsovertimefromperiodsofabundancetoperiodsofscarcity,thespeculatorisbuyingwherethepriceandmarginalutilityofthegoodarelowandsellingwherethepriceandmarginalutilityarehigh.Bypursuingtheirprivateinterests(profits),speculatorsareatthesametimeincreasingthepublicinterest(totalutility).910投机不会导致价格不变Ifthereisacompetitionamongwell-informed(信息灵通的)speculators,noneofthemwillmakeexcessprofits.Thereturnstospeculatorswillincludetheinterestoninvestcapital,plusariskpremium(风险贴补).Thereturnstospeculatorscomefromthedifferenceofprices.11通过套头交易隔离风险+=hedgeThewarehouseownerbuyscorninthefall,Hedging(套头交易)bymakingthecounterpart(配对的)saleallowsbusinessestoinsulate(隔离)themselvesfromtheriskofpricechanges.andsellsthecornimmediatelyfordeliveryinthefuture.12谁承担了谷物价格的风险？ThewarehouseownersSpeculatorsFuturescontractbuyersBakeryownersInvestors……13理想的投机提高经济效率Chicag