Model(股利折现模型).docVIP

6-4 Simplifying the Dividend Discount Model(股利折現模型) ■ simplifying case 1: the dividend discount model with no growth ● assumption: A company pays out all its earnings to its common shareholders. It does not raise any money either. [The company does not have good investment opportunities in the future.] implication: Such a company could not grow because it could not reinvest. Stockholders might enjoy a generous immediate dividend, but they could forecast no increase in future dividends. The company’s stock would offer a perpetual stream of equal cash payments, i.e., DIV1 = DIV2 = … = DIVt = …, where DIVt denotes dividends per share(每股股利) at year t. ● today’s price of the stock: = Please see valuing perpetuities in chapter 4. ● Since the company pays out all its earnings as dividends, earnings and dividends are the same, i.e., EPS1 = DIV1, where EPS1 is the next year’s earnings per share(每股盈餘) of the stock. = the value of a no-growth stock: . ● estimating the expected rate of return: ■ simplifying case 2: the constant-growth dividend discount model ● assumption: Forecast dividends grow at a constant rate into the indefinite future. = future dividends: a note: DIVt expected path actual path DIV0 0 t ● the value of a constant-growth stock: . ● Example 6-3: DIV1 = $3.0, g = 8%, r = 12% ● estimating the expected rate of return: = dividend yield (股利收益率) + growth rate Example above: r = 3/75 + 8% = 4% + 8% = 12% a note: 下學期的內容有一個重點是討論r如何決定。 When we use the rule r = DIV1/ P0 + g, we are not saying that the expected rate of return, r, is determined by the rule. It is determined by the rate of return offered by other equally risky stocks. However, we cou