供应风险论文：车供应商风险评价与选择研究.doc

供应风险论文：汽车供应商风险评价与选择研究 【中文摘要】随着全球化快速发展的今天,已没有任何一家汽车制造商能够单独完成从零部件制造、整车装配到最终把汽车送到消费者手中的全过程,汽车供应链的多参与主体、跨地域、多环节的特征,使其容易受到外界自然环境和各供应链节点企业自己内部风险的影响。汽车零部件供应商作为汽车供应链的前置环节,它的成功与否对企业的生存和发展起着至关重要的作用。因此对汽车零部件供应商在选择的过程中存在的风险进行正确有效的识别与评价,进而做出正确的决策,对于企业的有效运营,以及提升供应链整体的效率都有着重大的意义。首先,阐述了供应链风险相关理论和汽车零部件供应商管理的相关理论,针对汽车行业的特点,对汽车行业可能存在的风险进行识别,即汽车外部风险、汽车能力风险和汽车合作风险这三类风险,采用定性指标和定量指标相结合的方法,对这三类风险的相关关键因素进行深入分析,建立了汽车零部件供应商选择的风险评价指标体系,通过运用模糊层次分析法对汽车供应风险指标进行权值的计算,结合专家打分和行业数据分析得到评价初始值,进而得到基于风险下的汽车供应商排序。其次,本文把风险成本引入到汽车零部件的采购总成本中,风险成本分为： 1 供应商全部发生供应中断而造成的损失； 2 供应商为了预防或控制风险而采取相应的措施产生的成本。采购总成本包括原材料成本、交易成本和风险成本这三个部分,通过分析每个部分与供应商数量之间的关系,建立供应商最优数量选择模型,依据采购总成本最小化原则,得出选择汽车供应商在供应风险下的最优供应商数量。结合第三章基于风险下的汽车供应商排序,汽车制造商即可得到需要选择的供应商。最后,通过对一个案例进行实证分析,验证了本文提出的汽车零部件供应商风险评价指标、评价模型以及最优供应商数量的决策方法具有可行性和实用性,给汽车制造商在选择供应商时如何防范供应风险提供了一套可供参考的流程。 【英文摘要】Along with the rapid development of globalization nowadays, there is no car manufacturer could afford the whole process including parts manufacturing, vehicle assembling and customer delivering alone. Automotive supply chain may encounter many risks both inside and outside because of too many parts and levels, as well as the border-crossing. As an upstream link, parts manufacturer plays an important role in automotive supply chain. Distinguishing and evaluating the risk accurately when choosing parts manufacturer could largely improve efficiency of car manufacturer even the automotive supply chain.Firstly, supply risk theory and auto parts supplier management theory are expounded. Considering the characteristics of automobile industry, we analyze three kind of risk that may exist. They are external risk, ability risk and cooperation risk. Combine with the qualitative and quantitative indexes, we analyze many risk factors and build a risk evaluation index system. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate weight. Then we get the evaluation initial value from analyzing experts’grades and industrial database, which could bring out the sequence of automobile suppl