房地产行业财务预警指标体系分析-以万科公司为例.doc

房地产行业财务预警指标体系分析-以万科公司为例 摘 要 在目前我国市场经济条件下，企业竞争愈演愈烈，企业经营面临着巨大的风险与不确定性，经常有企业发生财务危机甚至破产促使经营者及时采取有效对策改善管理，防止企业陷入破产的境地，以保护各相关主体的利益At present our country under the condition of market economy, enterprise competition, enterprise management is facing the huge risk and uncertainty, often have the enterprise produces financial crisis or even bankruptcy. But because of financial crisis is not in a very short period of time is formed, a period of latency. Therefore the establishment of enterprises financial crisis early warning system, early diagnosis and prompt the operator to crisis signal, to take timely and effective measures to improve the management of enterprises, to prevent financial crisis or even bankruptcy, in order to ensure the healthy and rapid development of enterprises, the protection of the interest of relevant main body, effectively prevent and dissolve the crisis to the enterprise development is of great significance. In this paper, Vanke, for example, combine a variety of problems encountered during their own practice, read with reference to the relevant literature, explore the status of Vanke financial early warning systems and emerging issues, and to put forward their views and suggestions related to the purpose for managers provide accurate and effective method to predict the crisis, to promote the healthy and stable development of enterprises. KEY WORDS: Financial crisis, financial indicators, financial early warning, early warning system 目录 摘 要 1 ABSTRACT 2 1绪论 4 1.1 研究背景及意义 4 1.2 研究内容及方法 5 2 相关概述 6 2.1 财务预警的概念 6 2.2 财务预警机系的功能 7 2.3 财务预警机系的理论 7 3房地产行业情况 9 3.1 房地产行业发展现状 9 3.2 房地产行业特征 9 4房地产公司财务预警体系构建 12 4.1 房地产公司的财务风险 12 4.2 房地产业公司财务预警模型构建流程? 13 4.3 房地产公司Logistic财务预警模型? 13 4.4 财务指标的选取 14 5万科房地产公司财务预警体系应用 17 5.1 万科公司简介 17 5.2 财务数据在预警体系中的应用 22 结束语 24 致 谢 25 参考文献 26 1绪论 1.1 研究背景及意义 改革开放三十多年，我国的企业发展迅猛，已然成为社会主义市场经济中一个极具生命力和创造力的组成部分。但据阿里软件运营中心的《企业调查报告》显示：有65%以上的企业在五年内倒闭。导致倒闭的经营失败，从财务角度有两个较为突出的现状：一是资金流断裂，偿债能力降低，从而导致不能按时清偿债务；二是企业盈利能力下降，继而慢慢出现连年经营亏损。然而企业