城镇养老保险金口问题研究.doc

摘要 本文在综合福利经济学理论、代际转移理论、养老保险需求理论、养老保险供给理论、灰度分析理论和研究方法的基础上，分析了养老保险影响因素，构建了适合现状的社会保障需求和供给模型，以此计算出社会养老保障基金的缺口，并给出了相应的对策建议。首先，基于对相关理论的梳理，分析了社会养老保险需求和供给的影响因素。影响因素包括内生因素，如经济发展水平、社会平均工资及增长率、物价水平等，同时也包括外生因素，如法定退休年龄、社会平均余命、替代率等等。其次，提出了研究假设，构建了基于的社会保障需求和供给模型，并以此确立了社会养老保障缺口模型。最后，对养老保基金缺口问题进行了政策模拟。运用因素分析法和可靠性分析法进行了检验，并从政府、企业和城镇职工的角度给出了具体建议。 关键词：城镇，养老保险，保险金，缺口，研究； Abstract In this paper the theory of welfare economics, intergenerational transfer theory, endowment insurance demand theory, pension insurance supply theory, gray theory and research methods on the basis of analysis of the endowment insurance, influencing factor, built for the social security current situation of demand and supply model, to calculate the social pension insurance fund gap, and gives the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. Firstly, based on relevant theories, analyzes the social pension insurance supply and demand factors. The influence factors include internal factors, such as economic development level, social average wages and growth rate, the price level, while also including the exogenous factors, such as the statutory retirement age, social life expectancy, substitution rate etc.. Secondly, put forward the research hypothesis, based on the demand for social security and supply model, and established the social security gap model. Finally, the pension insurance fund gap problem undertook policy simulation. The use of factor analysis and reliability analysis method to carry on the inspection, and from the government, enterprises and urban workers view gives specific suggestions. Key words: urban, endowment insurance, insurance, gap, research; 目录 摘要 1 Abstract 1 目录 2 引言 2 一、国内外研究情况 4 1.1、国外安排 4 1.2、国内研究 5 二、社会养老保险的改革历程 6 2.1、养老保险的产生 6 2.2、我国养老保险改革历程 7 三、提高城镇职工工资是解决养老保险基金缺口的根本办法 9 3.1、调整最低工资标准 9 3.2、建立健全工资集体协商制度 9 四、确定合适的养老保险基金替代率，完善制度设计 10 4.1、经济发展水平 10 4.2、养老金的计发办法 11 4.3、养老金替代率的确定要参照国际标准 11 4.4、考虑目前的养老金缺口，还应解决转轨成本 11 4.4.1、政府 12 4.4.2、企业 12 4.4.3、个人 13 结论 13 参考文献 14 引言 随着我国人口老龄化高峰期的到来，我