城市间的孟母三迁.docx

城市间的“孟母三迁”公共服务影响劳动力流向的经验研究夏怡然a 陆铭b,c（a温州大学，b上海交通大学，c复旦大学） 摘要：本文利用2005年1%人口抽样调查中劳动力流动的微观数据与220个地级市的城市特征数据，研究了公共服务与工资等城市特征对劳动力流向的影响。估计结果显示，劳动力选择流向某个城市，不仅为了获得该城市更高的工资水平和就业机会，而且还为了享受该城市的基础教育和医疗服务等公共服务。通过控制户籍制度的影响和剔除来自公共服务相关行业的劳动力需求方面的影响后，公共服务影响劳动力流向的作用仍然稳健。同时，我们还发现长期流动的劳动力更会选择流向公共服务好的城市。基于我们的实证发现，公共服务均等化政策可以在一定程度上缓解人口向公共服务水平好且工资水平也高的大城市集聚的状况，促使劳动力的空间分布更加均匀化。然而，从变量标准化后的回归结果看，公共服务影响劳动力流向的作用系数都小于工资对劳动力流向的影响，因此，政策制定者不能高估公共服务均等化对分散人口分布的作用，而应对人口继续流向大城市的趋势有科学的预判，并优先对长期居住的外来劳动力提供平等的公共服务。 关键词：公共服务 工资 劳动力流向 条件Logit模型City Choices: An Empirical Study on How Public Services Affect Labor FlowXia Yiran; Lu MingAbstract: Using the micro data of 1% census in 2005 and characteristics of 220 prefecture-level cities, this paper studied the influence of city characteristics including public services and wage on labor flow. The estimation results show that people tend to migrate to a city where he could get not only higher wages and job opportunities, but also better basic education and medical services. By controlling the impact of hukou systems effects and removing the samples who work in industries related with public services, the results remain robust. At the same time, we also found that long-term migrants prefer to flow to cities with better public services. According to the evidences we found, the equalization of public services across cities can alleviate the population agglomeration to large cities and lead to evener spatial distribution of labor force. However, from the results based on normalized variables, coefficients of public services are smaller than that of wage. Therefore, we suggest that policy makers do not overstate the effect of equalizing public services across cities on dispersing population. Priority should be given to equalize public services for long-term migrants based on the scientific prediction of population agglomeration in large cities.Keywords: Public services; Wage; Labor flow; Conditional logit model一、引言 改革开放以来，中国流动人口①的规模急剧增长，从1982年的657万增加到2010年的2.21亿，占总人