房地产财务风险技巧.doc

本科生毕业论文 房地产业债务融资率与财务风险 ——基于我国房地产业上市公司的研究 姓　　名 　　号 专　　业 指导教师 年月2006年开始，我国开始大量制定一系列房地产业债务融资的相关政策，比如提高银行贷款利率，鼓励发行债券，并在2007年得到落实，其效果在2008年的次贷危机得到验证。所以，研究我国房地产业的债务融资率和财务风险的相关性，具有很大的意义。 本文回顾了房地产业的融资情况和风险状况，具体分析了影响财务风险的主要因素，并以此选择了三个控制变量。建立以财务风险概率为因变量，债务融资率为自变量的多元线性回归模型，选取较有代表性的2007年国内房地产业上市公司数据为研究样本。实证过程中，先运用逻辑回归模型预测样本的财务风险概率，再将总样本进行资产负债率高低程度的划分，通过多元线性回归分析发现，高资产负债率公司，其财务风险显著大于低资产负债率公司；对于高资产负债率公司，债务融资率越大，其发生财务风险的概率就越大；对于低资产负债率的公司，债务融资程度与其财务风险无显著相关性。最后针对分析结果，为企业融资提供了一些建议。 关键词：房地产业；债务融资率；财务风险 Abstract A notable difference between Chinese real estate industry and the mature in developed capital market is the way of financing of our real estate industry is bank loans. But the main mode of the developed one is the issuance of bonds, real estate securitization, real estate trusts and other forms of self-financing. To a high degree, the financial risk caused by the debt financing methods is smaller than our country’s. It also show that the DFA has a remarkable correlation between the financial risk. Among the existing research, few has mentioned the relationship between the debt financing and financial risk. Since 2006,China began to formulate a series policy which is relevant with the real estate industry, such as increasing the bank loans, bonds and encouraging the issue. In 2007, its effects had been implemented; so it did in 2008 subprime crisis. So it’s of great significance to analyse the relationship between the debt financing and financial risk. In this paper, we reviewed the real estate industrys condition of financing and financial risk, analyzed the main impact of financial risk factors, and, based on this, cheesed four control variables. In this paper, we selected the real representative industry in 2007 as a sample, built a regression analysis model which takes the Probability of Financial Risk as dependent variable and the rate of Debt Financing as variable. During Empirical process, first, we forecasted the sample’s Rate of Financial Risk by r