罗伯特8226;席勒(RobertJShiller）外文期刊摘要.docx

文献翻译：1、A Pricing Framework for Real Estate Derivatives摘要：New methods are developed here for pricing the main real estate derivatives —futures and forward contracts, total return swaps, and options. Accounting for the incompleteness of this market, a suitable modelling framework is outlined that can produce exact formulae, assuming that the market price of risk is known. This framework can accommodate econometric properties of real estate indices suchas predictability due to autocorrelations. The term structure of the market price of risk is calibrated from futures market prices on the Investment Property Databank index. The evolution of the market price of risk associated with all five futures curves during 2009 is discussed.Keywords: derivatives pricing, real estate indices, incomplete markets, market priceof risk, serial correlation本文开发了新方法来给主要房地产衍生品——期货和远期合约，总收益互换和期权。考虑到房地产市场的不完整性，一个适合的模型框架应该能够在风险市场价格已知的情况下提供准确的公式。这个框架可以适应房地产指数的计量学性质，比如基于自相关的可预测性。风险市场价格的期限结构是通过Investment Property Databank校准的。2009年风险市场价格与所有的五个期货曲线的关系在本文被讨论。关键词：衍生产品定价，房地产指数，不完全市场，风险市场价格，序列相关2、Comments and DiscussionRobert J. Shiller: The question of whether investments in homes are attractive for individual investors—whether one should “own or rent”—has been a perennial subject of popular discussion. But the question has taken on increased urgency in the past few years because of the enormous recent (and perhaps still ongoing) boom in home prices. I have argued elsewhere, using data back to 1890, that this boom, which began in the late 1990s, is probably the biggest home price boom that the United States has ever seen.关于投资住宅对个人投资者是否有吸引力——应该“买或租”——的话题多年来一直被人们讨论，但是这个问题在过去几年因为房价的高企（并且有可能持续走高）而亟待解决。我曾经说过，用1890年的数据来看，这一次在九十世纪末爆发的房价大爆发很有可能是美国经历过的最大的一次爆发。The question has taken on almost hysterical significance among some people, who seem to be reading and talking about real estate just about every day. Some renters are feeling a pang of regret that they did not invest in homes some years ago, when prices