流感传播和控制的数学模型研究__培训课件.ppt

Model involving general population University population General population Model involving general population The effects of duration of Fengxiao and off-campus rate on H1N1 outbreak LHS/PRCC uncertainty and sensitivity analysis Conclusions and discussions Effectiveness of NPIs (quarantine, isolation, hygiene precaution and Fengxiao ) Using model-based and likelihood-based methods and on the basis of Laboratory-confirmed data sets for Shaanxi province and 8th hospital of Xi’an city to estimate the control reproduction numbers Sensitivity analyses: effect of parameter changes on reproduction number and two wave patterns Our findings suggest that prompt implementation of multiple NPIs is required to reduce a potential risk of new outbreak and to mitigate the new outbreak should it occur. Thanks for your attention ! According to a byelaw on pandemic A/H1N1 influenza, the Ministry of Health required that all medical institutes should directly report within 2 hours through national epidemic disease information system once they found cases which comply with the definitions of probable, clinical and laboratory-confirmed cases. So, we believe the data on laboratory-confirmed cases of pandemic A/H1N1 influenza from September to November were quite accurate \cite{report2009}. Since December, however, any patient with fever did not have to have a confirmation for A/H1N1 virus for medical treatment, and hence H1N1 cases were under-reported since then. There were 21 imported confirmed cases before August 31st, which did not generate secondary cases and hence were not included in our data set. On September 3rd, local cases were found and reported in the Xian Institute of Art and Science. Shaanxi Bureau of Health started to report cases daily then changed, on September 19th and November 17th respectively, to report once every two days and once every week. No data is available on weekends (Fig.\ref{Fig:data}(A)). All confirmed cases in Mainland China were isolated