城市经济承载力的综合评价及其时空差异研究.docx

城市经济承载力的综合评价及其时空差异研究—以我国15个副省级城市为例狄乾斌，韩帅帅（辽宁师范大学 海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心 辽宁 大连 116029）摘 要：科学评价城市经济承载力是准确把握城市经济可持续发展水平与方向的重要依据。经济承载力综合评价由承载水平评价和承载质量评价构成，优质的高水平经济承载方式才符合城市经济的可持续发展模式。以我国15个副省级城市为研究对象，运用非线性模糊综合评价法对其2000-2012年的城市经济社会发展情况进行分析，结果表明15个副省级城市的经济承载力发展趋势在波动中上升，整体水平不高；在此基础上进行纵向和横向比较，结果显示13a中，15个副省级城市经济承载力水平差异在波动中不断扩大，城市经济承载力在地理空间分布上，沿海城市优于内地城市，南方城市优于北方城市；在承载质量的评价中，利用“压力—状态—响应”模型将经济承载力进行解构分析，结构演进在时间序列上表现出不断优化的趋势，且经济系统实现有效率的发展模式。综合分析：15个副省级城市的经济承载力水平不高，时空差异较大，但在结构分析上表现出了较好的演进路径，基本符合可持续发展的要求。关键词：经济承载力；非线性模糊综合；时空差异；结构演进，副省级城市Study on Comprehensive Evaluation and its Spatial and Temporal Differences of City Economic Carrying Capacity—A Case Study of 15 Sub-provincial cityDI Qianbin ，HAN ShuaiShuai (Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development，Liaoning Normal University，Dalian 116029，Liaoning ，China)Abstract: The scientific evaluation of city economic carrying capacity is an important basis of the accurate grasp of city economy sustainable development level and direction. Comprehensive evaluation of economic carrying capacity by carrying level evaluation and carrying quality evaluation form, quality high level of economic carrying mode is consistent with the pattern of sustainable development of city economy. Takes 15 sub-provincial city as the research object, the 2000-2012 year the city economic and social development are analyzed by nonlinear fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the results show that 15 sub-provincial city economic carrying capacity increasing trend in fluctuation, the overall level is not high; based on the vertical and horizontal comparison, the results show that 13a, 15 sub-provincial city economic carrying capacity level difference expands unceasingly in the wave, city economic carrying capacity in the spatial distribution of coastal city, better than the mainland city, South City over the North City; in the evaluation of carrying quality, the article analysis carrying capacity of economic use of pressure - state - response model