人民币汇率变动对湖南经济影响的实证研究.doc

随着全球经济一体化的不断深入，各国和地区对外贸易日益频 繁。汇率作为影响对外贸易的一个重要因素，其变动必然会影响一国 和地区的经济发展，因此，汇率变动对经济发展的影响研究一直受到 各界的高度重视。在我国外向型经济程度不断增大及中部崛起的大背 景下，作为以机电产品、钢材、有色金属和农产品为主要出口商品的 中部省份，湖南经济的外向型程度也在不断提高。鉴于此，研究人民 币汇率变动对湖南经济的影响，对于优化湖南产业结构、促进湖南经 济增长是很有意义的。 本文利用规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法，分别从经常项目和 资本与金融项目下分析了人民币实际有效汇率变动对湖南进出口贸 易和外商直接投资的影响，发现湖南对外贸易收支和外商直接投资分 别与人民币实际有效汇率之间存在均衡稳定的长期关系;人民币实际 有效汇率上升(即人民币升值)不利于湖南进出口贸易的发展，也不 利于引进外资。随后，本文从总体上分析了人民币汇率变动对湖南经 济的影响，发现人民币汇率变动与湖南经济总量之间存在均衡稳定的 长期关系，人民币汇率上升或者波动增加都会导致湖南经济总量减 少，从而不利于湖南经济的发展。最后，本文对研究的结论进行了总 结。 关键词:人民币汇率变动，湖南经济，进出口贸易，外商直接投资人民币汇率变动对湖南经济影响的实证研究 ABSTRACT With the development of global economic integration, various countries and regional areas forein trade has become more and more frequent. As one of the important factors of influencing foreign trade, the exchange rate inevitably has a significant impact on national and regional economic growth so the research of economic impact of the exchange rate volatility is paid close attention to all countries and areas. In the context of Chinese export-oriented economy and central areas growing, as a central province of exporting machanical and electrical products, steel, non-ferrous metals and agricultural products as the main export commodities, Hunans export-oriented economy is also growing up. The research of the impact of RMB exchange rate volatility on Hunan, will benefit Hunans industrial structure optimization and economic growth. In the method of standardized analysis and empirical analysis，this paper anaylyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate volatility on Hunan import and export trade and foreign direct investment from the current account and the capital and financial account, and draws a conclusion-the RMB real effective exchange rate has a stable long-term equilibrium with Hunan foreign trade payment and foreign direct investment. The rising of RMB real effective exchange rate is unfavorable for developing Hunans foreign trade and attracting foreign investment. In additon, this paper also analyzes