1.Population Aging1.Population Aging.doc

2 Population Aging: A Human Triumph What economic and social adjustments will governments have to make as a result of population aging? By Joseph Chamie Population aging is a triumph of civilization. It is the inevitable consequence of attaining desired smaller family sizes, lower mortality rates and longer lives, with many living beyond 100 years. This achievement, however, requires vital social and economic adjustments to expected future demographic realities. In particular, population aging raises critical issues for countries, states and cities in areas such as economic growth, employment and retirement, pensions, health care and social support services. As a population ages, the proportion of elderly (those 65 years or older) increases, and that of children (those under age 15) decreases. For much of the past, children outnumbered the elderly by a factor系数 of more than six to one. Today, the ratio has declined to about three children per one older person. And within the next few decades, perhaps by 2060, the world’s elderly population will begin to exceed the population of children, when each group is expected to account for1 slightly less than one-fifth of the world population. Developed countries have already moved well along this transition. In many developed countries, such as Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, Spain and the Ukraine, the elderly already outnumber children. A notable exception is the comparatively young U.S. population, where the number of children is 50% greater than those aged 65 and older. By mid-century, projections for the European countries as a group point to nearly twice as many elderly as children, with nations such as Germany, Italy and Spain having about one-third of their populations aged 65 years or older. Developing countries are now going through a similar aging process, but at a much faster pace. For example, whereas France took 114 years for its elderly population to increase