北大 软实力演讲.doc

Imgoingtotalktoyouabout；我想讨论的是21世纪的权利；Whenwetalkaboutpowertran；说到权利的转移，我们经常会提起亚洲的崛起；Tounderstandpowerdiffusi；要理解权利分散就要明白一点：计算和交流的成本已经；幅度下跌，获得这一技术的门槛就会降低；人人都可以；Andwhatthatmeansisno - -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Im going to talk to you about power in this 21st century. And basically, what Id like to tell you is that power is changing, and there are two types of changes I want to discuss. One is power transition, which is change of power amongst states. And they are the simple version of the message, is its moving from West to East. The other is power diffusion, the way power is moving from all states, West or East, to non-state actors. Those two things are the huge shifts of power in our century. And I want to tell you about them each separately and then how they interact and why, in the end, there may be some good news. 我想讨论的是21世纪的权利。基本上我想告诉大家的是权利的变化，有两种变化是我想探讨的。 一种是权利的转移， 国家和国家之间的权利变化。这是对权利转移的简单解读，即权利正从西方转移到东方。另一种是权利的分散，即权利的转移是从西方和东方的各个国家 到非国家的范围。以上两种情况是本世纪权利的重要转移。我想分别说说这两种情况 和它们之间的相互影响 以及为什么说最终可能是个好消息。 When we talk about power transition, we often talk about the rise of Asia. It really should be called the recovery, or return, of Asia. If we looked at the world in 1800, youd find that more than half of the worlds people lived in Asia and they made more than half the worlds product. Now fast forward to 1900: half the worlds people -- more than half -- still live in Asia, but theyre making only a fifth of the worlds product. What happened? The Industrial Revolution, which meant that all of a sudden, Europe and America became the dominant center of the world. What were going to see in the 21st century is Asia gradually returning to being more than half of the worlds population and more than half of the worlds product. Thats important, and its an important shift. But let me tell you a little bit about the other shift that Im talking about, which is power diffusion. 说到权利的转移，我们经常会提起亚洲的崛起。确切地说应该称作亚洲的复兴或者亚洲的回归。 回