初宏第13章解析.ppt

* The U.S. dollar was designated the world’s key currency. Most international trade and finance was to be transacted in dollars. Fixed exchange rate parities were set in both gold and dollar terms. BRETTON WOODS THE DOLLAR STANDARD * THE COLLAPSE OF BRETTON WOODS By the mid-1950s, Europe was increasingly self-sufficient. U.S exports slowed. American’s strong economy attracted foreign imports. U.S. trade deficits were further fueled by an overvalued currency, budget deficits to finance the Vietnam War, and growing overseas investment by American firms. THE FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE 汇率完全由供给和需求的变化决定，政府不规定官方汇率，也不采取措施影响汇率，汇率的变化取决于私人对商品、服务和投资的供给。 比索的例子：比索供过于求，供求背后的力量 * S1 D1 Quantity of peso Q1 Q 0.25 0.17 0 Dollar price of 1 peso D2 固定汇率体系能够更好的防止各种投机攻击吗？ 宁死也不让货币贬值？（有足够的外汇储备吗？） 投机攻击（外汇的现货市场VS外汇的期货市场） 卖泰铢，买美元。。。。 * Unlike the earlier uniform systems of first the gold standard and then Bretton Woods, today’s exchange rate system fits into no tidy mold. Without anyone’s having planned it, the world has moved to a hybrid known as a managed float. TODAY’S HYBRID SYSTEM MANAGED BUT FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES A country will buy or sell its currency to reduce the day-to-day volatility of currency fluctuations. A country may also engage in systematic intervention to move its currency toward what it believes to be a more appropriate level. * * PEGGED CURRENCIES Many countries, particularly small ones, peg their currencies to a major currency or to a “basket” of currencies. Sometimes the peg is allowed to glide smoothly upward or downward in a system known as a gliding or crawling peg.（滑动或爬行的钉住） * MONETARY INTERVENTION Finally, almost all countries tend to intervene either when markets become “disorderly” or when exchange rates seem far out of line with existing price levels and trade flows. 国际金本位制下的国际收支自动调节机制 大卫-休谟：货币-价格机制 国际收支赤字 黄金 外流 货币供给下降 国内价格下降 出口增加进口减少 国际收支盈余 货币供给上升 黄金　 内流 国内价格上升 出口减少进口增加 浮动汇率制度下的国际收支的自动调节机制 国际收支逆差 外汇需求大于外汇供给 本币贬值 本国商品相对价格下降 出口增加进口减少 国际收支顺差 外汇需求小于外汇供给 本币