兰州市城市用水价格决策模型.doc

兰州市城市用水价格决策模型 摘 要：我国水资源短缺，而且时空分布不均衡。为保证经济社会发展对水的需求，国家投入了大量资金和人力兴建大批水利工程，同时实行节约用水政策。但是多年来，供水工程难以实现良性运行，用水浪费现象仍普遍存在，其重要原因之一是水利工程供水从未被视为商品，水利主要是无偿或低价供水。本文主要研究的就是确定城市用水价格的构成及定价原则。在基于ELES模型下分析兰州市城市用水量与水价的关系，以模糊评判方法科学合理的评估水资源价值，提出阶梯式水价改革的理论及依据，并对单一制定价与阶梯式定价进行比较，为城市用水的定价提供可靠的依据，巩固现有水利工程，发挥水利工程的效益，促进节约用水。 关键词：城市用水；ELES模型；模糊评判法；阶梯水价 The Price Decision-making Model of Urban Water-consumption In Lanzhou City Abstract:It is shortage of water resource in China, and the spatial and temporal distribution is uneven. In order to ensure the economic and social development’s needs for water, the state has invested a lot of money and manpower to build a large number of water conservancy projects, and carry out water conservation policies. But over the years, water supply projects is difficult to achieving benign operation, a waste of water is still widespread, one of the important reason is that it has never been regarded as a commodity for water supply project, water is mainly free or low-cost water supply. This paper’s major studies is to determine the structure and pricing principles of urban water price. The analysis of the relationship between urban Water-consumption of Lanzhou City and water price is based on a single model under ELES,while using fuzzy evaluation method to assess the value of water scientifically and legitimately, put forward a theory of stepped tariff reform and basis, and compare the develop of a single price and pricing ladder, and provided a reliable basis of pricing for urban water-consumption.It also can consolidate the existing water conservancy,play a benefit of water conservancy projects, and to promote the water conservation. Keyword:urban Water-consumption ;ELES-model ;fuzzy evaluation method;ladder-like water price 目 录 第一章 引言 1 第二章 城市用水定价理论系统 2 2.1水资源定价的理论基础 2 2.2水资源定价的几种理论模型 3 2.2.1影子定价模型 3 2.2.2供求模型 3 2.2.3成本模型 4 2.2.4模糊数学模型 5 2.2.5 LES模型 6 2.2.6 ELES模型 6 第三章 兰州市城市用水现状及其定价分析 7 3.1兰州市水资源现状 7 3.2兰州市城市用水需求分析 7 3.3兰州市城市用水定价分析 8 3.3.1兰州市