世界性大规模流行病的威胁..docx

[2009.4.30] The pandemic threat 世界性大规模流行病的威胁Pandemics世界性大规模流行病The pandemic threat世界性大规模流行病的威胁Apr 30th 2009 From The Economist print editionIt’s deadly serious; so even if the current threat fades, the world needs to be better armed情况极其严重；因此即便眼下的威胁消除，整个世界都需要更有效地做好应对准备。Illustration by KALIT IS said that no battle-plan survives contact with the enemy. This was certainly true of the plan drawn up over the past few years to combat an influenza pandemic. The generals of global health assumed that the enemy would be avian flu, probably passed from hens to humans, and that it would strike first in southern China or South-East Asia. In fact, the flu started in an unknown pig, and the attack came in Mexico, not Asia. 据说任何一份作战计划接敌后就作废了。过去几年中制定的应对流感大规模爆发的计划毫无疑问就是这样。统帅全球卫生的将军们设想敌人将是可能是由鸡只传染给人类的禽流感，并且认为它将首先在华南地区或东南亚爆发。事实上，这场流感源自某一头猪，并首先在墨西哥爆发，而非亚洲。The hens, though, deserve some credit. The world has not had a pandemic (a global epidemic) of influenza since 1968. Four decades are long enough to forget that something is dangerous, and people might have done so had they not spent the past ten years considering the possibility that a form of bird flu which emerged in Hong Kong in 1997 might be one mutation away from going worldwide.鸡只们则应该得到表扬。上一次流感作为世界性大规模流行病（全球性的传染病流行）爆发还要追溯到1968年。四十年时间足以久到让人忘记危险的存在，要不是人们过去十年中一直在思考一种最先于1997年在香港出现的禽流感病毒变异后在全球爆发的可能性的话，人们确实可能忘记这样的危险。The new epidemic (see article) was raised on April 29th to just one notch below the level of a certified pandemic by the World Health Organisation. In an effort to halt the spread of the disease, Mexico’s president, Felipe Calderón, has announced that non-essential services should close down between May 1st and 5th, and people should stay at home. Part of the reason for worry is that, unlike ordinary flu, which mostly carries off the old, the victims of this disease are mostly young and otherwise healthy.世界卫生组织于4月29日将这场新的大规模传染病（见文章）的威胁等级提高到只比世卫组织确证的世界性大规模流行病低一级的程度。为了防止疾病的传播，墨西哥总统费利佩?卡尔德隆已经宣布非必要的服务设施应该在5月1日-5日间关闭，而人们应该呆在家里。这