I城镇化动因扭曲与制造业产能过剩.docxVIP

城镇化动因扭曲与制造业产能过剩——基于2001—2012年中国省级面板数据的经验分析刘航/孙早【专题名称】国民经济管理【专 题 号】F10【复印期号】2015年03期【原文出处】《中国工业经济》(京)2014年11期第5～17页【英文标题】The Distortion of Urbanization Incentive and the Over-capacity of Manufacturing Industry: Empirical Analysis Based on Chinas Provincial Panel Data in 2001—2012【作者简介】刘航(1987-　)，男，山东鄄城人，西安交通大学经济与金融学院博士后；孙早(1966-　)，男，江苏泰兴人，西安交通大学经济与金融学院副院长，教授，博士生导师，陕西　西安　710061【内容提要】城镇化与产业发展不对称是中国式城镇化的重要特征。受特定的政绩考核观影响，城镇化通常被地方政府视为实现政绩的抓手，使得城镇化脱离产业演进规律而过快推进，造成低技能劳动力过度供给，反过来迫使地方政府要求企业选择有利于充分就业的产能决策。从而导致制造业产能过剩。本文利用2001—2012年中国省级面板数据检验了城镇化与制造业产能过剩之间的关系，结果发现：城镇化脱离产业规律而过快推进，迫使地方政府从财政、贷款、土地等方面加大对企业的干预，最终导致产能过剩；技术进步和提高要素配置效率可以弱化过快的城镇化对产能过剩的刺激作用。本文的政策含义是：新型城镇化道路必须坚持产城紧密结合的原则，适当弱化地方政府在城镇化中的强势主导地位，同时注重技术进步和要素改革的实效，以确保生产要素的合理配置、便捷流转和高效使用。The asymmetry between urbanization and industrial development is an important characteristic of Chinas urbanization. Affected by a particular view of the performance evaluation, urbanization is greatly valued by the local government as a way to realize political achievement. Consequently, digressing from industrial evolution law, urbanization is impelled overly rapidly that results in oversupply of unskilled labor, which in turn forces the local government into requiring enterprises to select decision about production that is favorable to full employment, eventually leading to surplus production of manufacturing industry. By using the provincial panel data of China, ranging from 2001 to 2012, we examine the relation between the urbanization and surplus production of manufacturing industry. The findings are as follows: urbanization which digresses from industrial evolution law and is impelled overly rapidly, will force local government to interfere in enterprises in many aspects such as finance, credit and land, and result in surplus production of manufacturing industry ultimately; technology progress and increasing of factors allocation efficiency can weaken the stimulating impact of overquick urbanization on surplus production. Our policy impli