我国信息制造业上市公司成长性分析及实证研究..doc

我国信息制造业上市公司成长性分析及实证研究 摘 要 上市公司的成长性是描述该上市企业一定时期内业绩发展、变化的一种状态，合理进行成长性评价，找到合适的预测方法，正确预测上市公司未来的成长性，无论对投资者、债权人还是上市公司本身而言，都具有非常重要的意义。 本文以在公司成长上比较有代表性的信息制造业上市公司2005-2007年3年数据为研究样本，依据成长特性将其划分为三类，分别是成长性公司、一般公司和ST公司，并选取包括短期偿债能力、长期偿债能力、营运能力、获利能力、发展能力、股东回报能力、现金实力在内的财务指标作为备选变量，通过因子分析法分别计算各个上市公司在各能力指标上的因子得分，然后利用Fisher多类线性判别分析法建立成长性评价模型，从而对信息制造业上市公司的成长情况作出分析和评价。 经过实际数据的分析，得出以下结论：Fisher多类线性判定分析方法能够对我国信息制造业上市公司的成长性进行有效评价；信息制造业上市公司的股票回报能力在一定程度上反映了它们的成长能力；一般公司的获利能力和发展能力与成长性公司没有显著区别；成长性的公司其各个财务指标能力的发展较为均衡，整体运行情况良好，它们在营运能力方面与其它公司有着显著区别。 关键词：信息制造业，成长性，判别分析 ANALYSIS AND EMPIRICAL STUDY ON GROWTH OF DOMESTIC LISTED COMPANIES IN INFORMATION MANUFACTURING SECTOR ABSTRACT The growth of listed companies is to describe the development in performance of listed companies in a certain period of time. Reasonably assess the growth, finding the suitable forecasting method and correctly predicting the growth of listed companies in the future, no matter for the investors，creditors or the listed companies, are very important. The dissertation analyses the data of listed companies in information manufacturing sector, using the 2005-2007’s date. Based on the growth indexes the companies are divided into three categories: growthing company, common company and ST company. Seven kinds of financial indexes are selected, including short-term payment ability, long-term payment ability, operating capacity, profitability, development capacity, shareholders profitability and cash capacity. And factor analysis are used in each kind of financial index to obtain factor scores. Then Fisher multiple discriminant analysis are used to establish growth assessment model of listed companies in information manufacturing sector. After the analysis of actual data, the conclusions are as follow: Fisher multiple discriminant analysis is valid to analyse the growth of listed companies in information manufacturing sector; the shareholders profitability of companies in this sector reflects their growth in a certain ex