东亚地区货币整合的可能性研究..doc

東亞地區貨幣整合的可能性研究： OCA指數的應用 2004/7/18 （初稿，請勿引用） 李燕萍* 胡春田((?  摘 要 自上世紀70年代末80年代初至今的20多年來,“東亞奇迹”的出現使東亞地區成爲了世界經濟中最耀眼的亮點。然而,1997年爆發的東亞金融危機慘痛教訓，使亞洲國家真正認識到：只有通過區域性的經濟與金融合作， 才能共同抵禦金融危機的侵害。而幾乎同一時期歐元的啓動, 代表貨幣一體化的成功先例,引發了亞洲各國和地區的更多思考。在這種背景下,有關亞洲金融合作的問題引起了各國政治家和學者們的關注。 本文依照1997年Tamim Bayoumi和Barry Eichengreen的方法對東亞地區建立了一個OCA（最適貨幣區）指數，並根據最適貨幣區理論對東亞貨幣整合的可能性進行了分析。 本文認爲，從各國經濟相互依存度的角度來看，東亞地區進行貨幣合作的可能性雖然很大，但不是沒有障礙：東亞地區在一體化道路上的主要障礙，在於其經濟發展水平的層次性和差異性；另外從政治的角度來說，東亞各國要達到貨幣一體化、組成最適貨幣區還需要很長的一段路，需要各國的共同不懈的努力。因此要進行東亞地區貨幣整合，最好的方法是先在某些經濟依賴程度較高、關係較緊密的小區域和次區域內加強經濟和貨幣合作，在自願和協商一致的基礎上，逐步先就某些領域和産品加速貿易和投資自由化進程，以加強東亞的凝聚力，最終達到形成東亞貨幣聯盟化，促進整個東亞地區經濟發展的目的 【關 鍵 詞】：最適貨幣區，貨幣一體化， 經濟一體化， 貨幣聯盟。 Abstract Since 1980s, East Asian miracles have drawn the attention of the world and are the focus of economic research in academics. However, the miracles were burst like a bubble by the Asian financial crises broke out in 1997. Economies in the region suffered a lot in terms of their economic growth rates. One lesson that people learned from the crises is that no single country can be immune from being contagious in a world of interdependence. The bitter cost made Asian countries recognize that via regional economic and financial cooperation, may they minimize the damage of financial crises altogether. Another great event happened in about the same period is the launch of Euro-dollar，which symbolized the successful integration and it is bound to have a profound impact upon the euro area as well as the world economy. Although the process of European integration can be traced back to more than 50 years ago, its success nonetheless introduces the possibility of economic integration in other region, Asia particularly. Against this background, the issue of Asian financial cooperation has drawn the attention of politicians and scholars in this region. This thesis follows OCA index approach created by Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1997) to study the possibility of monetary cooperation among Asian count