哈尔滨银行财务风险预警系统的问题研究.docVIP

哈尔滨银行财务风险预警系统的问题研究 经济与管理学院：唐明聪 指导教师：艾文国 摘 要：一个有效的财务风险预警系统可以预知财务危机的征兆，并能及时发现导致财务状况恶化的原因，使经营者在危机到来之前采取预防和控制措施，将危机消灭在萌芽状态。就目前来看，哈尔滨银行财务风险预警的发展还很不完善，本文主要依据财务管理和风险管理理论，采用定性和定量相结合及实证分析的方法，主要从系统在信贷业务对信贷客户评级，以及系统对哈尔滨银行自身财务风险监测两个方面对哈尔滨银行财务风险预警系统的现状和存在的不足进行了细致的分析，提出一个比较适合哈尔滨银行这种中小型城市商业银行的财务风险预警系统。并通过实证分析对财务风险预警系统和财务风险预警模型的适用性和有效性进行验证，从而提高哈尔滨银行财务风险的管理水平。 关键词：财务风险；风险预警；预警系统 Abstract：A available warning system of financial risks can foresee the symptom of financial crisis and timely discover the reason which bring corporations deterioration of financial status, then when corporations are confronted with crisis, operator can swiftly take measures to forecast and control the crisis, at last the forepart of crisis are perished. But seen from the present, the development of preworning of financial risk of Harbin Bank is not still very complete. This text is mainly according to the financial management and risk management theory, under the existing research background at home and abroad, adopt the nature and ration combine together and demonstration analyze method, carry on research to current situation and lack of which exist in the financial risk early warning system of Harbin Bank by rating of customers of System in the credit business credit, as well as monitoring of system in the financial risk of Harbin Bank, and then make a Financial risk early warning system which More appropriate in Harbin Bank, as well as in those Small and medium-sized city commercial banks just as Harbin Bank. Besides, analyze through the real example that verifies the practicability and validity of the system and model, thus make an improvement to the management of financial risks in Harbin Bank. Key words：Financial risk Risk warning Early warning system 引 言 2008年，美国“次贷”金融危机席卷全球，中国银行业不可能幸免于难。同时，面对加入WTO外资银行的挑战，国内商业银行的财务结构不合理的弊病近年来也是越加明显。国内大多数如哈尔滨银行这样的中小型城市商业银行对财务风险预警系统的应用意识十分弱。作为这些中小企业的最大债权人的哈尔滨银行应该应用完善的财务风险预警系统来避免因此而产生的坏账，同时也通过财务风险预警系统来提高自身的财务结构避免自身的财务危机。哈尔滨银行对财务风险预警系统的应用并不纯熟。对其应用中存在的问题