金融深化因子的检验及国际比较[精选].doc

金融深化因子的检验及 ——基于国际面板数据的分析 摘 要 金融发展与经济增长之间的关系是经济学中一个重要而永恒的话题，金融深化是金融发展的主要指标之一。本文将那些使得各国的金融深化水平对其经济发展的影响程度在各国间趋同的经济变量称为金融深化因子，它反映了相同的金融深化水平下各国经济发展水平却不相同的真正原因。本文以23个国家1981—2009年的国际面板数据为基础，对金融深化水平、经济发展水平、对外开放程度、城市化水平、人力资本和现代化水平根据需要进行了相应的协整分析，发现金融深化与经济发展之间的确存在长期的稳定关系。然后建立面板数据的固定效应变系数模型以找到金融深化因子，最终得到金融深化因子为各国的对外开放程度和城市化水平。然后对各国的金融深化因子的状况进行了面板数据的聚类分析，得出我国与泰国、印度和印尼等国家的金融深化因子的水平最为相近的结论，我国在经济发展中应该大力推进城市化水平的进程并且努力提高对外开放的质量。关键词：金融深化经济增长金融深化因子面板聚类 Abstract The relation between financial development and economic development is an important and perpetual topic in economics. The economic variables which let every country’s effect which financial deepening level has on economics development converges is called financial deepening factor. Financial deepening is one of indexes of financial development. Financial deepening factor reveals the reason why a same economics development level can lead to different economics development level in different countries. Based on international panel dates of 1980----2009 from 23 countries, co-integration analysis is used to analyze financial development level, economics development level, opening level, urbanization level, human resource and modernization level, which reveals a long-term stability between financial deepening and economics development. Then this paper establishes the fixed effects model and finds out financial deepening factors that are opening level and modernization level. In addition, every country’s financial deepening factors are clustered. At last, this paper concludes that financial deepening factors of Thailand, India and Indonesia are the closet, and our country should push the urbanization and improve opening level. Key words: Financial deepening; Economics development; Financial deepening factors; cluster analysis of panel data 目 录 一、研究背景 1 二、文献综述 1 三、理论意义和实践意义 3 （一）理论意义 3 （二）现实意义 3 四、数据及指标的选取 3 （一）数据来源与处理 3 （二）指标的选取 4 1.金融深化指标 4 2.经济发展指标