我国货币政策传导机制研究与探析..docx

摘要货币政策作为调控经济的重要宏观经济政策，对于熨平经济波动、促进经济增长和就业等方面有着重要的影响。关于货币政策能否有效影响经济，目前有货币政策中性论和非中性论两种，目前大多数经济学家已普遍认同“货币政策短期非中性、长期中性”的观点。在货币非中性的基础上，一般认为，扩张性货币政策能起到促进经济增长的作用，而紧缩性货币政策能起到抑制经济增长的作用。但相同力度的紧缩性货币政策和扩张性货币政策对经济的影响程度可能有很大不同，这种效应即称为货币政策的非对称性。研究货币政策效应非对称性不但能从理论上完善货币政策理论，同时能为中央银行货币政策调控力度提供指导，因此对这一问题的研究具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文以货币供给、产出和价格组成的系统为研究对象，基于1997年至2011年间的月度数据，分别利用线性向量自回归模型（VAR）和非线性Logistic平滑转换向量自回归模型来实证研究我国货币政策效应是否存在非对称性。实证研究结果表明，我国货币政策对产出和价格水平的作用均具有非对称性，具体来说，经济繁荣期紧缩性货币政策对产出和价格水平的抑制作用要高于经济萧条期扩张性货币政策对产出和价格水平的促进作用。从我国的现实情况来看，目前我国货币政策的传导仍以信贷渠道为主，而且未来很长一段时间内我国货币政策信贷传导仍将占据主导地位。结合我国的货币政策传导机制的特点，本文具体分析了不同经济状态下商业银行和企业对中央银行货币政策的应对行为，进而导致了我国货币政策效应非对称性的形成，并在此基础上提出相关完善我国货币政策的建议。关键词：货币政策；非对称性；非线性平滑转换向量自回归；形成原因AbstractIt is now more or less accepted that monetary policy plays an important role in controlling aggregate demand and ultimately inflation but with a time-lag. There are two myths in the monetary field: the myth of neutral money and the myth of non-neutral money. Now more and more economists acceptneutrality of money in the long term and non-neutrality of money in the short term.On the basis of validity of money,generally, an expansionary monetary policy can promote economic growth and an tight monetary policy can curb the rate of growth in a given economy. The asymmetric effect of monetary policy means that a negative monetary shock affects the output more or less strongly than a positive shock. Research on asymmetry of monetary policy can help us improve the theory of monetary policy and guide the operation of central bank, thus, studying the asymmetric effects of monetary policy is both theoretically and practically important and meaningful.Based on the China’s data from 1997:01 to 2011:12, this paper uses linear vector autoregressive model and nonlinear smooth transition vector autoregressive model including output,prices and money supply to examine for the presence of asymmetric effects of monetary policy on aggregate activity and price in China. The results imply that the effect