计量经济学2--时间序列报告--美元兑换韩币的汇率分析(英语)..docx

The Forecast and Analyses of Korea Won/Dollar Exchange rate Name:???, ??? ID: 2010140537, 2010140511IntroductionAs the No.1 trade partner of Korea, the exchange rate between two countries has a tremendously significant meaning in bilateral trade, which effects and reflects a lot on the situation of Korea economy. From pegged rate to the floating system, the Korea exchange experiences several steps with different patterns. The report targets to find out the characteristics of won exchange rate, and make an appropriate forecast by current sample up to 2020 with less interruption of sudden change.Content;Part.1 Overview of Nominal Korea versus US dollars (2)Part.2 Estimation of Nominal Exchange rate (4) a. Find out the Break point b. Factors and Characteristics of Korea Exchange Rate can see from the Break Shock PeriodPart.3-- Forecasting of the Future (Page 5)Part.4-- Reference 1.Overeviwe of Nominal Korea Exchange Rate versus US dollarsIn terms of the diagram of monthly won/dollar, the entire trend appears increasing pattern. This trend stabilized from 1970 to some points at 1980, afterward, slightly fluctuated, and abruptly skyrocketed in the moment, a period can be easily taken a guess, 1998, IFM crisis in Korea. After all up to now, the stable pattern has disappeared; it went up again at 2008 due to the credit crises and real estate bubble happened in US and other parts of the world.Go back to the Korea currency history, this kind of patterns follow up with the system transition. Since 1970, BOK (Bank of Korea) decides to peg the won to US dollars, and gave up the fixed exchange rate system after Breton Woods system collapsed around 1980. After Dec. 1997, the Korea won was able to float biases of supply demand(IMF 1998 p.491)(1). Plus global crises of 1998 and 2008, exchange rate moved in an extremely typical way, wave and abrupt increase and decrease. As the previous description of characteristics of exchange rate in different periods. It is tremendously import