计量经济学论文关于我国居民消费的实证分析..docx

Abstract4key words4引言5一、理论综述51、凯恩斯的绝对收入假说52、杜森贝利的相对收入假说53、莫迪利安的生命周期假说64、弗里德曼的持久收入假说6二、实证分析7（一）参数估计7（二）模型检验与修正91、经济意义检验92、统计检验103、多重共线性检验与修正104、序列相关性检验12（三）模型分析13三、政策建议14参考文献15摘要在中国经济发展进程中，消费是伴随其发展的一个重要内容，伴随着经济增长的加快，消费形式的变化也越来越快，消费作为我国经济增长的三驾马车之一，起着不可替代的作用，只有把经济增长转变为依靠内需的增加上来，才能真正实现惠国惠民国策。凯恩斯认为，短期影响个人消费的主观因素比较稳定，消费者的消费主要取决于收入的多少。但是大家都知道，收入的变动并非影响消费的全部原因。尤其在短期内，有时边际消费倾向可以为负数，即收入增加时消费反而减少，收入减少时消费反而增加；有时边际消费倾向会大于1，即消费增加额大于收入增加额。这些现象告诉我们，在日常生活中，除了收入，还有其他一些因素会影响消费行为。影响消费倾向的因素有主客观两个方面，主客观的诸多因素相互制约相互影响。社会的消费量取决于期居民的收入数量、客观环境及社会成员的主管需求、心理倾向和社会的收入分配原则等主客观因素。主观因素是指人性的心理特征、社会习俗和社会制度，这三方面具有相对稳定性。本文利用1990年—2009的二十年数据，选取了居民可支配收入、CPI、税率、GDP四个因素分析对居民消费的影响，旨在说明其中的相互关系，为国家政策的制定与实施提供参考意见。关键词消费收入CPIEViewsAbstractIn Chinas economic development process, the consumer is accompanied by the development of an important content, along with the accelerating pace of economic growth, consumption patterns of change is faster and faster, consumption as Chinas economic growth is one of the troika, plays an irreplaceable role, only economic growth into relying on domestic demand increases up to truly achieve benefit citizen and country national policy. Cairns believes that the short-term impact of personal consumption comparison of subjective factors, consumer consumption depends on how much income. But we all know, the impact of income changes not all consumption. Especially in the short term, sometimes marginal propensity to consume can be negative, i.e. income increases consumption has decreased, while consumption reduced income had increased; sometimes the marginal propensity to be greater than 1, that is, consumption increases greater than the increase of income. Thephenomena tells us, in our daily lives, in addition to income, there are other factors that could affect consumer behavior. Factors that affect the propensity to have both a subjective and objective, subjective and objective factors constraining influence each other. Community consumption in the depends on the amount of income during